"Some time ago I was reading Taleb's book - Antifragile. I didn't imagine at that moment that I would get a life lesson, me and an entire planet. Taleb believes that "antifragility is beyond resilience or robustness. Resilients withstand shocks but remain at the same level, while antifragiles manage to perform better."

This is exactly what I discovered in the year of the global pandemic.

Most companies, retailers or manufacturers, have built plans for business resilience, built businesses with great robustness, but a few have managed to use this crisis in an extraordinary way. And this was possible mostly thanks flexibility and speed of adaptation to the demands and pressures of this crisis.

Lucian Marin, Managing Partner Growth Leadership Consulting

As 2020 draws to a close and economies begin to tentatively open, consumers have already changed their behavior – from how they live and work, to what and how they buy, and an important part of these behavioral changes will stay with us and after the COVID period.

Some new consumer/buyer realities in 2020:

• The reduction in out-of-home activities will continue as a safety and protection measure for a recession that is expected to be stronger than the one in 2009. As a result these activities and habits are being replaced by in-home alternatives. n The buyer turned to the shops in the vicinity of the house. If in 2018 a shopper visited an average of 5 different retailers/week, the number of visits has dropped significantly to less than half. As a result, both the proximity of modern trade and that of traditional trade benefited during this period both in terms of traffic and the increase in the value of the shopping basket.
• In terms of buying missions, impulse purchases have significantly decreased, while stock-up missions have obviously increased in all types of stores.
• The time spent in the store has decreased, especially for large formats, and this has led to decreased variety in the shopping cart and greater planning of the shopping cart component. The orientation towards already known brands/products was evident during this period, at the same time "food waste" decreased and consumers' preference for local products and brands that communicate sustainability or ethics increased. We must admit together that 2020 was a very good year for most retailers in Romania, with exceptional growth: +37 % vs LY, + 31% vs LY – these are two figures of growth recorded by two of the modern trade players with "proximity" formats.

However, in 2021 we will see a need to reduce costs in general (rents) and to transform fixed costs into variables: warehousing, human resources (sales force, retail employees), so we expect additional negotiation pressure, coming from these areas. In this context, below you will find the trends to include in the strategy for 2021.

Proximity – in Modern Trade and Traditional Trade

Like digitization, proximity has been on the omnichannel agenda of the biggest retailers for years. Proximity is not necessarily a white horse in a crisis. For most of the consumers the concept already translated into saving time/convenience, access to more offers and with customization. What the current context has added are the safety components and the one to instigate responsible consumption (products of strict necessity - short purchase route), the parameters on which they have settled even more heavily than traditional expectations. Each brand has a clear development strategy in each channel.

However, we have in front of us a 2021 in which the "return on investment" can be considerably better, if proximity is well represented, both through investments and promotional strategies, but also through the type of packaging adapted to "stock-up in proximity ". But the most important success factor, in trade, remains presence on the shelf, and I believe that in 2021 a coherent distribution in modern proximity retail and in independent proximity retail will be important success factors.

Flexibility and transparency in Supply Chain

We have all witnessed an extremely volatile year in demand and supply. We need to internally adapt stock planning and promo planning capabilities to today's reality. We need to be closer to the market and to each individual retailer, in such a way that the pressure of stock and "out of stock" is as low as possible. The ability to forecast and meet demand has never been more important to manufacturers and retailers alike. The ability to bring flexibility to production and logistics and reduce costs in parallel must be a permanent cross-functional concern. Especially with the perspective that the annual negotiations will start from different positions in 2021, after a successful year for retail and a stressful one for the vast majority of manufacturers.

Also, the ability to be transparent about the origin of the products becomes important for the retailer. Furthermore, with technology and the need for control leading the way, the accelerating success of big name private labels is the result of an exercise in supply chain agility. The future success of retailers will depend more on performance in analyzing large amounts of data than on pricing and promotion strategies.

And last but not least, an important input into physical retail channels comes from the online area, where shelf size has allowed consumers to try new options. A lesson to take on the physical shelf as well.

Digital

Undoubtedly, the current context has accelerated or forced market players to implement or expand services such as online product purchase, home delivery or store pickup through click and collect facilities.

Thus, in 2021 brands are faced with questions such as: "What is your ecommerce strategy?", "How do you help me sell more in ecomm?" or "What price will you give me for what I sell in ecomm, on my own platform?". The answers to these questions will likely determine the success of distribution policy and trade policy in 2021. In addition, the context raises a number of other questions, valid for brands and retailers alike. "What is your company's business model for ecomm - own platform, wholesale (retailer) or Amazon-type ecomm platform?" All these answers will need to be defined as well.

The adaptation of internal team structures, processes and the increase of online channel management capabilities will be key topics in shaping the digital strategy in 2021. New loyalty tools for retailers in Romania A big concern of retailers will be "how to maintain consumer trust in brands and services my?" or, as the case may be, "how do I recover the lost purchase experience?". After the delay caused by the introduction of GDPR rules, the capitalization of data management resources remains an important development area, especially since in the last two years three of the Top 5 retailers have launched their own loyalty cards: Mega Image, Lidl and Kaufland, two of which with an important contribution in digital via mobile applications.

Together, the three represent more than 30% of retail in Romania, so in 2021 we expect this topic to be an important one, which will put economic pressure, but also positive pressure on our promotional and marketing choices. The conversation on this topic will also shift to brands.

Transparency of brands

It is not the first time that retail has been shaken by major challenges, but never with such wide and rapid effects. Consumers have not only changed their buying habits, but also the way they shop. Big names responded in record time with new products and services, all to maintain consumer loyalty. From the same angle, a Nielsen study talks about the increased interest of consumers towards the operational and production processes of companies/brands, the interaction with local communities and society in general.

Thus, whether we are talking about the CSR strategy, the sustainability agenda, inclusion or fair employment practices, organizations with a high "sense of purpose" will be the ones that will recruit best among Generation Z. In addition, consumers' affinity to local brands can become a source of inspiration for retailers, assuming the role of curators of representative brands in local communities. Through the liberalization of communication, the transparency of brands becomes a necessary quality, a need that, in order to inspire sustainability, must also be addressed post-crisis. It becomes an obligation.

2021 is sure to be an election year. Of the choices between the degree of adoption of trends and impact in business, between the expectation of clarification and the need for quick initiative for the fruition of opportunities, between working in singularity or in the ecosystem.